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Archive for July, 2008

Microsoft backs open source work

July 29th, 2008 Pankaj Comments

It’s great to finally hear that MSFT is beginning to see the light and getting involved in open source projects like Apache.  I just hope the right hand knows what the left hand is doing and this continues.

Read more about MSFT donatine cash to the Apache Foundation and pledging to open up some of their communications software and protocols. 

BBC NEWS | Technology | Microsoft backs open source work

 

iPhone 2.0 Apps on Airtel India

July 27th, 2008 Pankaj Comments

Here are some screenshots of apps I have downloaded from the Apple App store. All the apps are running on a 1st generation 8gb iPhone that was recently upgraded to the 2.0 firmware. My carrier is Airtel in New Delhi and this post is being made with the Wordpress app for the iPhone.

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Web Timelines

July 27th, 2008 Pankaj Comments

Recently, I’ve seen three interesting timeline applications. Kronomy which Guy Kawasaki twittered about, LifeBlob which presented at Proto.in and I just stumbled upon the third, Dipity.

Here’s my Dipity timeline (it might be a little slow to load b/c of the various pictures and videos):

I haven’t tried LifeBlob yet, but creating a time line using RSS feeds made setting up a simple Timeline on Dipity really easy – 5 minutes easy! Kronomy was a bit more of challenge to setup RSS feeds in.

Categories: Web 2.0 Tags: ,

iPhone 2.0 Wordpress and the Indian Government

July 22nd, 2008 Pankaj Comments

This is my first post using the new Wordpress App from the iTunes App Store. Pretty good so far and really easy to use.

So far the Indian government looks like it will stay in power. What does that mean for the Indo-US nuclear pact? It looks good. What does it mean for the Indian economy? More of the same once the initial euphoria of the government not falling wears off.

Proto.in July 2008 Reflections

July 21st, 2008 Pankaj Comments

Proto.in is an event very similar to DEMO held in the US. The basic premise is to help startups gain visibility by being able to showcase their prototypes or products in front of other startups and potential investors.

Proto.in has been held in Chennai since its inception in January 2007, however, this summer, they decided to hold the two day event at IIT's campus in New Delhi.

It was my first time attending Proto.in and the first thing I have to say is that the event was well organized. The first few speakers on Friday were pretty good. Unfortunately, though, as time went on, it was evident that many of the people giving talks weren't able to engage the audience. It seemed that many attendees were finding more value mingling in the hallways as compared to what they were getting in the auditorium, myself included.

Day 2 was the day for fifteen startups to showcase what they're doing in six minutes, like DEMO. Six minutes isn't a lot of time to talk about your company, demo your product, and pitch the value proposition. However, this time limit is really meant to instill discipline in entrepreneurs' pitch to customers and investors.

Overall, I wasn't very impressed with the various ideas/businesses or business models that were being pitched. I'm going to touch upon the four companies that left some sort of impression on me. The other eleven companies left more questions about their viability and business models than anything else. Unfortunately, it wasn't possible to get in front of the founders of all these companies and get any sort of clarification.

Soliton was an interesting company. Good presentation, good delivery and interesting to see a company building hardware focused on the manufacturing industry. The idea behind the product isn't new but Soliton is trying to deliver a simpler and more effective camera to monitor manufacturing defects in a smaller package at a palatable price point.

The HiringTool is a web based B2B platform for recruiting. It allows companies to use multiple recruiters, consultants and agents. Their UI looks very easy to use and provides some interesting methods of working with recruiters ahnd determining what candidates are acceptable or not. The HiringTool hasn't officially launched but they are taking registrations. Too bad they didn't build this using Open Source technologies :-(

Blink Magic showcased a nice little LCD display connected to a physical shopping cart. The idea is to enhance the shopping experience at a grocery store, Walmart, K-Mart, or anywhere shopping carts are found. Cool little product with a nice simple interface. I'm not sure how viable this is in India, though. I see HUGE potential for this type of product at places like Walmart, Sears, K-Mart, Target, etc. Reliance Fresh, Sub ka Bazaar, or other Indian retail outlets, not so much, yet. The problem in the Indian context, once again comes down to basic infrastructure - mainly electricity and connectivity in the retail stores. Go West, young man, Go West!

Eko, for the purposes of full disclosure, is owned by a friend of mine so I've been exposed to their business model for a while. I won't say much other than they have the potential to do for micro-banking what Grameen Bank did for micro-lending.

I am hoping that the next Proto attracts really innovative thinkers and entrepreneurs rather than business models that are, for lack of a better description, mind-numbing.

TechCrunchIT » Blog Archive » The New Apple Walled Garden

July 16th, 2008 Pankaj Comments

A great post from

TechCrunchIT » Blog Archive » The New Apple Walled Garden

 
Categories: Apple, Open Source Tags: ,

The Office … Space

July 14th, 2008 Pankaj Comments

Finding decent quality office space for any company is a challenge. However, the space challenges that a startup faces have a far greater impact on the business than most people realize.

In Silicon Valley, it's mostly expected that a startup of less than ten people will work out of a garage or a basement. However, in other parts of the world, such as India, technology startups are almost required to have a "proper office".

Because of the bull market in India over the last four to five years, more and more people have gotten into various aspects of the technology business and employees now weigh, environment as high as they weigh compensation. Many prospective employees will not show up for an interview if the location of your office is not in a "suitable" location (locale as well as building).

Many recruiters and vendors will turn down working with you unless you're in a suitable space, plying that you're "too small" for them to work with.

In a recent report called The Global Markets Report by CB Richard Ellis, New Delhi was listed as the seventh most expensive office market in the world. Mumbai was at fourth place, London's West End was at first place. Midtown Manhattan in New York City was at number thirteen (you will have to register to download the report).

With the cost of office space in places like Mumbai and New Delhi soaring, it is becoming increasingly difficult for startups to find affordable and decent office space. In parts of New Delhi, like Nehru Place, rentals are going for Rs. 100 (roughly $2.38) to Rs. 150 (roughly $3.57) per square foot per month.

The problem with most of these spaces is a lack of power backup (availability of electricity in India is not very reliable), a lack of stable current (a UPS and current stabilizer are imperative, especially for computers and air conditioners) and overall appeal. Infrastructure costs for diesel generators and a UPS can run lakhs of Rupees (tens thousands of dollars) in CapEx and a few lakhs (thousands of dollars) in monthly maintenance costs. All of which, a startup typically can't afford.

I've been searching for affordable yet presentable office space in New Delhi since January 2008 with almost no luck. Those spaces that are affordable are very poor quality spaces. Those spaces and locations that are, relatively, decent quality are completely unaffordable.

Not being able to find decent space in Delhi has severely impacted our ability to hire the ten to fifteen people we've been aiming for. Hence, it has a hurt our ability to get products completed on time and on budget.

I think, and hope, that is going to change over the next twelve months. With credit tightening, growth slowing, and inflation rising, I believe that commercial office space will become more affordable but will it be affordable enough, fast enough? Your guess is as good as mine.

India’s Economy and The Wall

July 5th, 2008 Pankaj Comments

For all you economics and business-minded folks out there, I put up a post about my thoughts on the Indian economy and the direction it’s heading in over here.

I’d love to hear your thoughts …

India’s Economy Hitting the Proverbial Brick Wall

July 3rd, 2008 Pankaj Comments

This is an interesting article from BusinessWeek Online. I swear, I read this article today, after my previous post on the state of the Indian Economy.

The article focuses more on how the government mismanaged the economy when things were good and, basically, had (and continue to have) their heads in the sand as things started falling apart early this year. Another thing to note, is that the economic "dream team" of Oxford-educated Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Harvard-educated Finance Minister P. Chidambaram have been bogged down playing politics with the various parties (including their own Congress Party) and the diverse group of politicians in India, many of whom, probably couldn't spell "economy".

Just six months ago, India was looking good. Annual growth was 9%, corporate profits were surging 20%, the stock market had risen 50% in 2007, consumer demand was huge, local companies were making ambitious international acquisitions, and foreign investment was growing. Nothing, it seemed, could stop the forward march of this Asian nation.

Read More of this story at BusinessWeek Online

Market Turmoil and Basic Economics

July 1st, 2008 Pankaj Comments

It's been quite some time since I put up a post and I apologize for that. Business matters such as recruiting, product development, and facilities have been taking a considerable amount of time.

However, in the six months since my last post much has happened in the global economy and even more is happening in India.

I've been saying for some time (since late 2007) that the valuations of stocks on Indian exchanges didn't make any sense. The BSE benchmark index hit an intra-day high of 21,206.80 in January. Most people were predicting the BSE would hit 25,000 by March and 30,000 by the end of 2008. I had told many friends and relatives that the economic conditions were such that I saw the BSE hitting the 12,000 to 13,000 range by the end of 2008. I was wrong. 1st July 2008, the BSE has dropped to a 52 week low of 13,263.39. Is this the bottom? Not by a long shot. I believe global economic conditions will continue to drive liquidity out of the Indian market, making credit harder to come by and the BSE dropping to the 8,000 - 9,000 range in the next 9 months.

The Dollar-Rupee exchange rate touched a low of Rs. 39.12 in February of this year. The most pessimistic Indians chose to stay on the fence about where the Rupee was going. However, most people in India were talking about the Rupee going to 36. Could the Dollar at Rs. 36 be justified in this global economy? Absolutely not! Because of the fears of global economic sluggishness, investors are slowly pulling out of emerging markets like India which are perceived to be riskier than markets like the US. Already this year, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been selling off investments in the Indian market and moving capital back home and in many cases into US Treasury bonds.

Today (1st of July 2008), the Dollar has touched Rs. 43.40. Will the slide of the Rupee continue? Absolutely! I believe the Rupee will approach 45 to 46 by the end of this year, if not slightly sooner.

Weekly inflation numbers in India have hit 11.42%. Though the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is working to curb inflation by raising rates and also raising the cash reserve ratios that banks must maintain, it is unlikely that inflation will see single digits for quite a while. I believe inflation in India will hit 15% before the end of the year. Real inflation that customers are facing is far higher. A short auto-rikshaw trip that cost Rs. 30 a year ago is now Rs. 40. Not a big change in real terms but it's a 33% rise in cost to the consumer. Basic groceries such as milk, fruits, and vegetables that used to cost Rs. 200 per day now cost in the range of Rs.375 and Rs. 500. That's an increase of 187% to 250% in the last 15 months.

Now I'll come to my thoughts on the Indian real estate market. The Indian real estate market has seen an unprecedented growth in the last five years. Some locations have seen 10x returns on the sale of property in just five years. Most of the growth in Indian real estate is a result of foreign investors putting capital to use in India and the easy availability of domestic credit. Commercial and residential properties all over India have been doubling roughly every twelve to fourteen months. Sustainable? "Absolutely" remark most real estate brokers and developers/builders. Some anecdotal evidence that I've seen:

  • A residential apartment in a relatively upscale section of New Delhi that was on the market approximately 15 months ago at Rs. 2.25 Crore (just under USD 520,00) is still on the market but now at a price of Rs. 3.25 Crore (just under USD 750,000).
  • An office at what I would classify as a C-class building in a popular market place was being quoted at Rs. 100 per square foot per month in December 2007. In early June of 2008, a similar office in the same area was being quoted at Rs. 135 per square foot per month

Generally, residential properties are staying on the market longer than they were a year ago. At the same time, the seller (usually some developer/builder) is raising the price of the property based on the "Time Value of Money" principle. It's costing him something to hold the property and inflation and credit costs are also rising so he is factoring all those costs into the price of the property. The only problem is that the buyer is in some cases, losing money (or has at least given back some healthy gains) in the stock market, being pressured by higher costs of living due to inflationary pressures, and credit is harder to come by as well as being more expensive to acquire as domestic banks continue to raise mortgage rates.

Conclusions:

  • BSE to fall to 8,000 - 9,000 in the next 6 to 9 months
  • The US Dollar will strengthen against the Rupee and hit the Rs. 45 - Rs. 46 in the next six months
  • Indian inflation will continue to rise and reach 15%. Sharp rises in lending rates and reserve ratios are the only thing that can slow down inflation and risk dampening Indian economic growth. Growth could slow to the 5% - 6% range during the next twelve to eighteen months
  • New Delhi and Mumbai were recently listed as two Indian cities with the highest cost of commercial real estate rates in the world. New York City wasn't even in the top ten. Though both cities will probably remain in the top 10 list, do expect prices to fall dramatically over the next eighteen months. Residential prices will likely fall farther as speculators and buyers will be drying up rapidly with higher borrowing costs
  • If you're looking to invest in India, put your money in and don't think about it for 10 years. You will likely see returns that far exceed returns in more mature markets like the US during a 10 or 20 year time horizon.
  • Short-term speculators are going to continue to feel the pain like they haven't in a long time
  • Amateur stock pickers and real estate "investors" in India are going to exit the market in droves

I'm very bullish on India over the next 10 to 20 years. It's the next two years that are going to be a time of bringing this market and the people back to the basics. Reminds me a lot like the fall of 1998 and the dot com bust of late 2000 / early 2001. India will be stronger and more stable after the retrenchment.

Please chime in!

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